Here is my general read of the current situation with the Democrats trying to pass Biden’s spending bill, framed within a broader conflict between different sectors of capital:
The Republicans and the Democrats represent different sectors of capital, broadly speaking. The Republicans generally represent less dynamic (even dying) sectors whereas the Democrats represent more progressive and dynamic sectors (particularly big tech and “green” industry).
Part of why the Republicans have gotten more reactionary is that they literally represent dying industries and the white labor aristocracy that has benefited from these industries (think coal mining, old manufacturing jobs, etc.). All that the Republicans can do is to try to preserve what they see as the good old days, from the perspective of both their capitalist and working class bases. I think the future for them is either fascist seizure of power (electoral or otherwise) or a major shakeup.
The Democrats, on the other hand, represent more of the future of capitalism. They are concentrated in the most dynamic, forward-looking, innovative sectors. Big tech gets a lot of the focus, but I think the key here is the green energy sector. Green capitalism—which will still depend on the exploitation of people, land, and animals, but in an ostensibly kinder and more sustainable guise—is likely the way that capital will try to save itself both from climate catastrophe and mass movements demanding a livable world. This might require a relatively substantial break with neoliberal orthodoxy.
But not all Democrats are united around this. It seems clear that Joe Manchin represents one of the major dying sectors of capitalism: coal mining. The fight between different sectors of capital is not over within the party, although it could conceivably be over soon.
I think this framework of understanding the Dems and Repubs as representing different sectors of capital helps explain what is going on here. For what it’s worth, I actually think that most Democrats in office truly want to pass the spending bill. This isn’t all just a show with Manchin and Sinema acting as convenient scapegoats (though I imagine that is part of it). Biden’s plan isn’t radical or socialist. It will arguably be good for the reproduction and growth of capitalism—or at least, for the most dynamic sectors of the nascent green capitalism.
There is a real split within the capitalist/ruling class here. The options on offer are two different visions of the future of capitalism—green capitalism vs fascist reaction. I obviously don’t think either are good. But this dissension gives an opening for us to organize and push for a truly transformative vision that will overcome the contradictions of capitalism and present an alternative both to fascist reaction and to the “green capitalism” that is waiting in the wings.
